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Astral Codex Ten ·Behind the news

Against "Stochastic Terrorism"

by Scott Alexander

Published 2026-07-16 22:18:00+00:00

If a person speaks harshly about someone, are they to blame when a stranger turns violent?

0:00 / 11:50 · Narrator Sulafat

Context

The murder of a health insurance CEO and threats against political figures have brought a heavy label back into the headlines: stochastic terrorism. Writing on 16 July 2026, the author looks at how this term is used by almost every side of the political map to quiet their critics. The tension isn't about whether words have power, but whether a free society can function if speakers are held responsible for the acts of every unstable person who hears them. It suggests the only stable path is a return to a simpler rule: criticize anyone, but never excuse the violence.

Show notes

Stochastic terrorism is the idea that harsh public criticism makes a speaker responsible for later acts of violence against their target. This analysis tracks how the term is used across the political spectrum and tests several arguments for limiting what people are allowed to say. It argues for a return to the principle that individuals are solely responsible for their own crimes, regardless of the political speech that came before.

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