Contriving Imaginary Gaps in Nuclear Deterrence

Context

Writing on 29 May 2026, Jay Tilden examines the recurring American habit of announcing "deterrence gaps" to justify new weapons programs. While these warnings often secure funding, the piece suggests they do more harm than good by signaling specific vulnerabilities to adversaries. The real danger isn't a lack of theater-range missiles, but the public insistence that a president's hands are tied by rigid doctrine. The piece tracks how the stories told in Washington might actually be shaping the strategic calculations made in Moscow and Beijing.

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