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India and Pakistan Have Forgotten the Most Enduring Lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis

by Sushant Singh

Published 2026-10-18 14:00:01+00:00

When does firing missiles at a nuclear-armed neighbor start to feel like a safe bet?

0:00 / 12:09 · Narrator Vindemiatrix

Context

After the four-day border war between India and Pakistan in May 2025, leaders in both nations walked away with a dangerous sense of confidence. Writing on 18 October 2026, Sushant Singh points out that both militaries now believe they can launch conventional strikes without crossing the nuclear threshold. But his essay focuses on a terrifying blind spot. The real danger has nothing to do with whether precision weapons hit their targets. It is about how a nervous adversary interprets a sudden, unexplained explosion near a nuclear site during the fog of war.

Show notes

An assessment of the nuclear risks between India and Pakistan, focusing on how conventional military strikes near strategic sites increase the chance of accidental war. Drawing on the lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the analysis details how miscommunication, fast-moving weapons, and overconfidence could trigger an unintended nuclear exchange. It outlines why both governments have drawn the wrong lessons from past skirmishes, operating on the assumption that they can control escalation during future conflicts.

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