How Taiwan Activates Beijing’s Chosen Fear

Context

American military planners run countless wargames to figure out how to stop a Chinese attack on Taiwan. In this piece published on 13 October 2026, former wargame designer Charles Edward Gehrke points out a blind spot in those simulations. The models assume Beijing weighs military costs the way Washington would. But Gehrke notes that the Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan through an older historical tradition, where a rival government is proof the ruling regime is failing. If Beijing believes doing nothing guarantees its own collapse, loud American attempts at deterrence might just spark a war.

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