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The Marshall Project ·Behind the news

Why is Crime Falling? The Answers Aren’t Simple.

by Jamiles Lartey

Published 2026-08-29 12:00:00-04:00

If violent crime is dropping across the country, why can nobody agree on what actually worked?

0:00 / 8:21 · Narrator Rasalgethi

Context

Police departments across the country are reporting the largest year-to-year drop in violent crime since the 1930s. But the numbers leave a blank space where the explanation should be. Published on 29 August 2026, this report from The Marshall Project pauses on a rare moment of good news that nobody can fully explain. While criminologists point to a complicated mix of pandemic recovery and new local interventions, politicians are rushing to claim the credit for themselves. The result is a wide gap between what the data shows and the political stories built around it.

Show notes

An examination of the historic drop in violent crime across the United States and the competing theories behind it. Reviews several possible causes for the decline, including federal funding, targeted policing, and local intervention programs. It then details how politicians from both major parties are claiming credit for the trend on the campaign trail.

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