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War on the Rocks ·Future-gazing

Managed Instability: Why the Wars Against Iran and Ukraine Can Go on and on and On…

by Alex Kolbin

Published 2026-08-19 07:30:50+00:00

How do you end a war when the fighting itself has become too useful to give up?

0:00 / 24:23 · Narrator Rasalgethi

Context

In an essay published on 19 August 2026, Alex Kolbin looks at the grinding conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and spots a pattern. Neither war seems anywhere close to ending, and Kolbin suggests that might be by design. Instead of fighting toward a clear victory or a peace treaty, the nations involved have settled into a profitable stalemate. The piece asks a sharp question about modern conflict: how do you stop a war when the people fighting it find the chaos more useful than a settlement?

Show notes

An analysis of how the wars in Ukraine and Iran have settled into a state of managed instability, shifting from direct battlefield combat to prolonged struggles over shipping lanes, sanctions, and proxy attacks. The comparison explains why key actors often prefer ongoing, low-level warfare to a definitive peace settlement. Ends with a proposal for outside powers to force a resolution by tying their economic and military support to step-by-step de-escalation.

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